:: Unconventional Wisdom ::

:: Tuesday, August 12, 2003 ::

Kerry is narrowing. No, not Kerry's lead. Kerry himself. The man is getting narrower and narrower, as if someone mouse-clicked on his image and is stretching him. But enough of that. Kerry had the worse July/early August of any of the candidates, and it's just getting worse. Some in the conventional media had even called him the front-runner throughout the spring. Now, clearer he's not the front-runner -- Dean is. But over the last few weeks, Kerry also lost to Gephardt and Lieberman. This was most evidently on display on Sunday's "This Week" roundtable. Kerry was left out of the conversation entirely. There was speculation on whether Dean could be stopped if he wins Iowa or New Hampshire. Then there was talk of Lieberman's challenge to Dean from the right, suggesting one possible outcome that the primary season comes down to Dean vs. Lieberman. But George Will was there to point out the wisdom of Dick Gephardt -- someone, he said, who could hold Pennsylvania and Michigan and win Missouri. And lots of talk in the press last week about Gephardt's potential with the AFL-CIO and the big turnout at the Teamsters rally in New Hampshire on Saturday. No mention of Kerry in this.
:: Unconventional 8:47 AM [+] ::
...

Anyone surprised? The Hill reports that Gore is being pressured to reenter the race. I didn't think this would happen until September, but it's already begun. There will be similar "pressure" applied to Hillary to enter the race. (I still think she might, so she remains #2 on my list of likely nominees.) It seems to me doubtful that Gore will change his mind. But if he does, he'll lose -- probably to Dean, certainly to Bush. The Democratic contest continues to shape up as if Republicans choreographed it.
:: Unconventional 12:34 PM [+] ::
...

Count him out. According to Hotline, NPR's Mara Liasson said this about Bob Graham this morning on "Morning Edition": "Graham has a long way to go to catch up to the top-tier Democratic candidates, but in a race that's as unsettled as this one even after six months of intense campaigning, no one can count him out." Unbelievable that they let her do analysis. I can count him out right now. I counted him out as soon as his name was mentioned. Bob Graham is today's version of the 1996 Lugar campaign or the 2000 Hatch campaign (without the reservoir of affection in the party). No analysts took Lugar or Hatch seriously. Why they pretend to take Graham seriously is a mystery to me. Prediction: If Graham makes it to Iowa, he'll be beaten by Kucinich.
:: Unconventional 11:43 AM [+] ::
...

Back after seven months. The campaign is shaking out as I've predicted since Gore decided he was not going to run, at least with respect to Howard Dean. Dean's rise is appropriate because, like George W. Bush in the summer of 1999, he really does represent his party. The greatest illusion in this race now is that John Kerry has a substantial base of support. Like the candidate himself, Kerry's supporters are calculating. They are with Kerry because they think Kerry will win. When it becomes obvious that he won't, the other candidates will all benefit.

A surprise is how badly the Lieberman campaign is doing. While I've never thought that Lieberman could be the nominee, I thought -- especially after the South Carolina debate -- that he was smart enough to realize that if he ran hard from the right, there was an opening for him. But he has joined the chorus of those who want to have to both ways -- support the war but criticize the way Bush did it; talk about how you're electable but attack the tax cuts.

The only way to stop Dean -- and to rescue the Democratic party from permanent minority status -- is to open fight a battle for the direction of the party, like the DLC is doing. Maybe John Edwards has figured that out. This article on health care suggests he might be headed in that direction, which is the only one that gives him any prayer at all. (Changes are, this fight would be unsuccessful. The liberal wing would win.) Meanwhile, any thoughts out there on Dean's running mate? Besides Bob Graham?
:: Unconventional 7:51 AM [+] ::
...

The hour is late. Plenty of stories this weekend on how the Democrats feel that Bush's invincibility is beginning to crack. How many times have we seen these stories before? Many, many times. They are particularly dumb the week before the State of the Union address, which is very likely to reverse the erosion of approval ratings we've seen in Gallup. Also, a successful war will change the dynamic. Bush's real weakness, however, is on the right, and it is on foreign policy. The best evidence is in this National Review editorial. It concludes by noting that they have praised Bush's rhetoric while deferring to his judgment. But the hour, they warn, is late. So it is. Some of us have been talking about a potential challenge to Bush from the right since the war in Afganistan started. If reality doesn't begin to match rhetoric, it could really happen.
:: Unconventional 1:27 PM [+] ::
...

Enter Carol Mosely-Braun, stage left. Just three days after I asked whether the Seven Dwarfs are there is, I got my answer. An emphatic NO. Carol Mosely-Braun is answering her party's call to service. If anyone can save this field, it's Carol. Seriously, I don't think she'll even cut into Al Sharpton's vote. It's disappointing, though, because for a week or so it looked like she might try to reclaim her old Senate seat, now held by Peter Fitzgerald. Fitzgerald could have beaten Mosely-Braun. Now he'll probably lose.
:: Unconventional 11:59 AM [+] ::
...

Is the Seven Dwarfs all there is? Because the description of the 1988 Democratic field was so cool, it's being used again. The withdrawal of Tom Daschle posed a problem for the term, but Bob Graham makes it accurate again -- Dean, Edwards, Graham, Gephardt, Kerry, Lieberman, and Sharpton. But is this all there is? As I will argue, of these seven, only Gephardt realistically can beat Bush in 2004. This field is crying out for another entrant. So who? Bill Bradley. What does he bring? First, he's not a Senator. Second, his only baggage is a bad campaign against Gore -- he can overcome that. Third, he has a proven ability to raise a lot of money. Fourth, and most importantly, he lacks the downside of all the others. He's not perceived as far left as Dean, as strange as Graham, as self-promoting as Kerry, as hawkish as Lieberman, or as colorless as Gephardt. Joe Biden is right: You do not have to start running now to be a serious contender next year. Bradley can wait until the fall, when -- with victory achieved in Iraq and the economy chugging along -- the field looks even more pathetic than it now does.
:: Unconventional 3:05 PM [+] ::
...